Buy on hope, buy on fear, sell on clarity

Blog entry #2:

I love playing poker and many traders told me that the game and trading is very similar.  I never understood what that really meant until one day it hit me.

The stocks are always selling at market price based on what it knows as of that moment (being priced in), and what we buying is the future (in poker terms, the flop, turn and river).   Hence we are betting the probability on what will happen in the future.

For example, in September (before the fed announcement), people were unsettled due to not knowing what the fed will do.  From the various articles and survey on financial medias such as CNBC and Bloomberg, they all leaned towards to QEIII (65% to be exact).

I thought to myself, i have a 65% chance to make money tomorrow and what could i buy to maximize my bet.   I immediately thought of buying gold and i bought 1818 (zijin mining) based on it is the miner that mainly mines for gold.

My bet paid off and it went up 13% the next day.  (this is one of the better bets i have made)

I believe in stocks like poker, you can't win every bet you make, you need to know how to maximize a situation and cut loss when your hands not good anymore (still trying to master how to fold losing hands).  As long as we make more winning bets then losing bets then we can consistently profit from the markets.

Trade stocks and playing texas holdem

Funsik Blog No.1 November 19th, 2012

I have been investing on my personal account since out of college (approximately ~7 years ago).  Like many people, i view trading as trying to make a quick buck and this mentality have made me make a lot of mistakes (such as tips from friends and just randomly buying off picks from research analyst).

A great example would be buying a certain stock that a friend's uncle recommended this and gave me strong reasons to believe and follow him.  The process was a long and painful one and i lost more than 80% of my money based on my greed, and lack of knowledge.  Along the way, i recommended this stock to many of my friends (sincerely hoping they can make good money) and in turn they got burned too.

This lesson made me realize that there is no such thing as tips or easy money to be made.  This also is my motivation to develop/create a strategy that works for myself.

My passion for poker (texas holdem) have helped me developed my current trading strategy.  Throughout this blog i will write down when and what i bought.  Furthermore, i will state the reason of why i bought it.   I will also note on this blog of when i sell my holdings and the reason for that too.

This blog is to help me keep discipline and stick to my strategy and also (hopefully not too often) is to let others see what mistakes i made and to not make the same ones.


I have started trading again on Feb 2012 and have been doing relatively well.  My current holdings are below: (with date purchased, and price purchased - note that my 3 core holdings i have bought in different times and prices, therefore i will just provide the average price)

Core holdings:
0175 Geely Automobile, avg price (2.68)  current price (3.62)
1928 Sands, avg price (27.00)  current price (30.95)
2018 AAC technology (26.6)  current price (27.9)

Non core:
3323 CNBM price: 8.65  current price (9.52)  bought on 16/10/2012
1036 Winsor Properties price: 13 current price (11.32)  bought on 16/10/2012
1199 Cosco Pacific price: 11.4  current price (10.14)  bought on 17/10/2012
670 China eastern air price: 2.8  current price (2.68)  bought on 2/11/2012
3998 Bosideng Price: 2.53  current price (2.32)  bought on 5/11/2012
1133 Harbin electric price: 6.59  current price (6.24)  bought on 8/11/2012
0347 Angang Steel price: 4.96  current price (4.57)  bought on 8/11/2012
0038 First Tractor price: 6.5  current price (6.57)  bought on 8/11/2012

I will go thru the reasons of these trades next blog , i will also record the trades i have made over the year (the mistakes and the successful ones) to remind myself what i did right and wrong.